Midterms 2022: The Changing Demographics of the Electorate

2016 may not feel like a significant time ago, but the 2020 elections, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine have all transformed the tenor and dynamics of American politics. Beyond political developments, the demographics of the electorate have continued to evolve significantly over this time.

Data from the 2020 Census already demonstrated how the U.S. population has continued to diversify ethnically and racially. This demographic change is now being seen in the voting-eligible population, as younger and more diverse generations age into voting eligibility and as more immigrants take the important step of gaining U.S. citizenship and the right to vote.

With the 2022 midterm elections on the horizon, this map uses data from the Current Population Survey to show which states’ electorates are changing most rapidly. In swing states where close races are expected to take place, the extent to which changing electorates can be activated by each campaign may ultimately help determine who wins and loses come November.