The Changing Demographics of the Electorate at a State Level

While less than two full presidential election cycles ago, 2016 may feel like a significant time ago politically. Hotly contested midterm elections and the 2020 presidential contest, the coronavirus, and now the war in Ukraine have all transformed the tenor and dynamics of American politics. So too have the demographics of the electorate changed since 2016.

Data from the 2020 Census has already shown how the U.S. population has continued and even sped up its demographic diversification. This demographic change in the overall population has trickled slowly into the electorate as younger, more diverse generations of U.S.-born people age into voting eligibility and as more foreign-born individuals take the important step of gaining U.S. citizenship and the right the vote.

With the 2022 midterm elections on the horizon, this factsheet takes a look at the latest Current Population Survey data from 2022 and compares it to data from 2020 and 2016 in order to provide a snapshot of which states’ electorates are changing the most rapidly. In some swing states where close races are expected to take place, the extent to which changing electorates can be activated by different campaigns may help determine who wins and who loses come November.